There is nothing wrong with preparing for the worst.
of course, in the face of technological progress, a more passionate analogy is that the ship is fast approaching, and the people on board are still actively pushing forward, trying to get to the bow to see the most magnificent scenery.
this is the difference between young people and middle-aged people. I care so much about technological progress, but I still can't stand my concern for my job.
so I figured out what to do best with a sense of security. Although I run slowly, I am not paralyzed in bed after all, so I have to cherish my healthy time.
artificial intelligence is now the biggest threat to human work security. Whatever a machine can do well, even if it is more expensive than people in the short term, it must be cheaper than people in the long run. Moore's Law has changed from excitement to nervousness. Now humans realize that they are racing against machines. There's something wrong here. Isn't that machine still being pulled by people?
of course, experts have long sent out words to comfort such alarmist worries, which means that machines want to replace human beings, if not impossible.
I am a computer major, listen to you?
judging their point of view from the perspective of computer science professionals, it goes like this: in this world, no one has ever predicted correctly.
it is either true or false that computer students have nothing to eat from computers in their lifetime. Don't make wild predictions, it's still a reliable ancient motto that our ancestors planned. There is nothing wrong with preparing for the worst.
the basic strategy is to study which jobs are most easily replaced and which are the most difficult to replace by artificial intelligence and pick the most difficult jobs to do. Of course, the hardest may be replaced in the end, and there's nothing you can do about it, but at least it's a stopgap measure, at least it provides a goal to fight for, and you don't have to live in panic. Just like the great flood will eventually submerge the earth, standing on Mount Qomolangma is also dead, but at least it is the last to die. If you are lucky enough to die of old age in front of the flood, won't you make a profit?
I quit my job.
programmers are the most dangerous jobs. Strangely, so many young people go to learn to program, excitedly want to master artificial intelligence, be trendsetters, and want to be invincible in the future. Don't you think you can handle it? the basic reason why the IT industry is booming is its reusability. A piece of software is hard to write, but it's easy to make thousands of copies. This leads to the fact that the IT industry is an oligopoly by nature.
the first software that meets the needs of the public will split into thousands and kill all the same kinds of software. Of course, it is not necessarily strict first, but this meaning is true.
the same applies to artificial intelligence. AI, which has a level of intelligence that completely replaces human beings, is bound to appear in the hands of some giant, and according to a power law, it can only appear in the hands of one or more geniuses of that giant. Do you want to master artificial intelligence when you learn a little bit about programming? Is it your turn?
artificial intelligence has not yet made a key breakthrough to replace human beings, and if such a breakthrough occurs, it must first appear within its field. Programmers will be the first to be killed.
I quit my job to study how easy it is for existing human jobs to be replaced by artificial intelligence.
it doesn't matter if we don't study. After a study, I found that our judgment of the complexity of human work is completely wrong.
for example, we used to divide the work area into physical work and mental work. It is natural to think that physical labor is relatively simple and low-level, while mental labor is complex and advanced.
if Skynet shuttles from the future to the present, you will smile when you see such an understanding.
manual labor is very complicated. Let's talk about the moving company workers loading furniture on the car. First of all, a car should be loaded as much as possible (not considering the very, very advanced human intelligence that can cheat and cheat), but the furniture is strangely shaped, with plates, strips, columns, and many indescribable shapes; some are resistant, some are afraid of compression, some are strong, some are fragile. It can be placed horizontally, vertically, against the wall, or on the ground. With so many choices, movers who have not graduated from junior high school alone can make a fairly reasonable judgment. Not to mention the complexity of handling, the position of grip, the strength of lifting, the way of cooperation, the judgment of the road, and the awareness of the rules of the corridor, whether to take the elevator or the stairs, which can be carried together, and which are valuables. Sacks can be thrown directly into the warehouse, the table should slowly approach the warehouse and then gently put down, the plate can be casually pushed in …...
is it complicated or not?
and we think that complex mental work is generally writing manuscripts and doing calculations. the whole working environment is very single, a fixed desk and chair computer are enough, and the work content is highly constrained, although it looks complex for the time being. but once your work medium is broken by artificial intelligence, your whole job will be lost.
my future job choice must be based on manual labor, at least including manual labor.
include it. After all, I have done mental work all my life. I have sat on the bench in the classroom for nearly 20 years, and I have been writing programs for several years. I have cervical spondylosis, protruding lumbar disc, sciatica, high myopia, and a stiff tongue. Judging from the types of diseases, I am indeed a qualified programmer. Therefore, doing pure manual labor, I do not seem to be very competitive, before the arrival of artificial intelligence, I may have starved to death, or tired to death.
the next research goal is which mental work, including physical labor.?
Let's not cut corners. Physical work must involve a little brainpower, and it is impossible to do mental work without even moving your fingers. The so-called physical labor must include whole-body sports.
Modern agriculture is a choice, but I have an urban hukou;
Civil engineering seems to be good, but the professional threshold is high;
the fitness instructor is very promising, but I am not a patient like me.
I heard that my sister-in-law earns more and does all kinds of foreign language massage, which is suitable for high-quality talents like me, but it is a pity that the gender is a little worse.
yesterday, my cousin came to Harbin.
he drove himself from Beijing to the Northeast Ring Road, and Harbin was his last stop. To treat him well, I decided to treat him to a barbecue in the northeast.
choose a high-end shop, which is not only barbecue, but also a variety of dishes, beautiful display, rich colors, and good taste. After three rounds of wine, my cousin was a little excited and told me, well, back then, I always wanted to open a restaurant, and I just saved enough money in those years. But when house prices soared, he took the money to buy a house. Although I am making money, I always feel that a wish has not come true. Now I'm about to return it, and I don't want to make trouble. Therefore, the most important thing to being a man is to have ideals, so as not to live in vain. For the rest of my life, how much money is enough.
after dinner, I take my cousin back to the hotel and let him have a good rest. Tomorrow, my cousin will drive his Mercedes back to Beijing. It's a long way.
after seeing my cousin off, I took the bus home for more than an hour.
along the way, my cousin's words hovered in my head, and my eyes filled with tears.
Yes, my eyes are filled with tears.
the ideal job I was looking for was revealed by my cousin.
it is better to cook than to do all the business.
what other job can combine taste, creativity, moderate physical strength, and plenty of leisure like a cook?
some people say there are cooking robots now. Laymen, it's all bullshit. Like those machine programs that imitate Van Gogh or Bach. This kind of imitation is linear. But Van Gogh's appearance is linear? Is the appearance of Bach linear? Human beings can't even explain their perception of red and blue, how to teach the machine what is incense and what is smell? Machines can imitate very well, but there is an unfathomable gap between how far it is from creation.
the gap may be shallow or deep, and this unknown is the only career barrier I can rely on.
the training of programmers has made me develop the habit of paying attention to practical work.
I'm going to the vegetable market today.
I've never been there. In the past, meals were all eaten out with colleagues, and the salary was high, and I didn't care about 20 or 30 yuan for a meal; or online ordering, which only programmers could do, they originally wanted to serve themselves. Don't believe it. When I first worked, I thought about it because the food in the canteen was not good. It wasn't even 2010 at that time.
so I went into the vegetable market and couldn't find the north at all. Want to buy something, embarrassed to ask, such a big man, looking at all kinds of green vegetables, can not name, what do people have to think? I turned it around twice and didn't buy anything.
when I turned to the third lap, I finally plucked up my courage and said,
"Auntie, how much is this green onion?"
"This is chives."
my face flushed. What an idiot.
"Oh, what about this?" It was cilantro, but I dared not scream, so I pointed with my finger. Finally, I went home with a bag of chives and parsley.
when I walked out of the market, maybe because the tension of buying vegetables had subsided, I suddenly felt something different.
when I was a programmer, I used to buy pancake fruit at the pancake stand downstairs.
this behavior solidifies my identity as a programmer.
for a while, the uncle who sold pancakes disappeared. The stall lay there desolate, the wind blowing plastic sheeting, hula sound, I can not help but see things miss people, my stomach purring.
suddenly one day, the uncle showed up. I gladly went up to buy his business and asked:
"Why didn't I see you the other day?"
"I have a backache and I can't get up." The uncle said while he was busy beating eggs for me.
"Oh. Went to the hospital? "
"it's so heavy, why not go to the hospital?" I'm a little curious.
"Grass, make some money and give it to them."
"but the waist is not a trivial matter. If it's too serious, you can't make any money. You should see it."
Uncle looked at me and said:
"die if it's serious." Here. " And pass me the pancakes.
when I walked out of the vegetable market, I saw those suntanned people squatting on the ground, many of them very old and some young people. Their booth is one or two sacks, one squeezed by the other. It costs 2 yuan for a bundle of chives and 1 yuan for a handful of parsley. I suddenly thought if artificial intelligence comes, what will it do?
I am creative.
I made my invention on the first day of cooking.
Are you puzzled how to buy the appropriate dress but of the right price? wedding dresses for women over 50 is the solution. Shop with us for the quality and fabulous prices.
I invented a dish.
the name is "dipped in fragrance".
I am a magnanimous person, giving to you for free.
first, selector, wash a bundle of chives, choose and wash a handful of parsley, and then put the washed chives and parsley on a plate. Next, prepare the bean paste. When eating, tie the cilantro into a bunch with chives, or bind the chives into a bunch with parsley. The most important step is to tie up and dip enough of the sauce into your mouth.
I have found an ideal job.
however, in the spirit of programmers' open-source dedication and reusability, I decided to publish the results of painstaking research, as shown in the following table:
* artificial intelligence substitution difficulty index *
1 star: work that can be compiled into a sequence
2 stars: based on the above work Jobs with limited selection conditions
3 stars: jobs that cannot be described in mathematical language
4 stars: jobs that cannot be described in natural languages
5 stars: unpredictable jobs